De Divinatione

(Conspiracy Nation, 06/14/05) -- In his opus, De Divinatione, the Roman author Cicero gives arguments for and against the possibility that the divine can communicate with man by means of signs: "Divination." Book I gives the arguments pro-divination; Book II gives the arguments contra-divination. Since the prevalent zeitgeist is contra-divination (See, e.g., "Newton's Zeitgeist," http://www.shout.net/~bigred/Zeitgeist.html), this report bases itself on Cicero's pro-divination arguments.

Conspiracy theorists, so called, often find themselves pondering various "news" items. Given is that the "news" items are misleading. The "theorizing" is a divination attempt, an attempt to discover the hidden meaning in the "signs."

Divination also occurs in the economic realm. Like a Roman sacred chicken, Sir Alan Greenspan periodically cackles. The soothsayers (commentators) then variously interpret the "sign."

Greenspan: "The bond market is a conundrum." (The divine chicken gives a "sign" which in this case is the strangest "sign" of all!)

Soothsayer: Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington divine the meaning: "We rely upon data tenacity. The 'conundrum' thing of Greenspan is that long rates are a function of short rates. But the alternative theory is rational expectations -- that long rates respond to what is expected. The yield curve is, by itself, a leading indicator and a coincident indicator. It's also very robust. When the yield curve flattens, it reduces lending opportunities. It's telling us to expect slower growth and less inflation. Our basic theory is that the economy is in an interlude in which the coincident indicators tell us the economy is strong, but the leading indicators are turning down." ("Different drummer investing all in the interpretation," by Scott Burns. 5/29/05)

General Theory Of Soothsaying

"Do we wait for the immortal gods to converse with us in the forum, on the street, and in our homes? While they do not, of course, present themselves in person, they do diffuse their power far and wide." The Stoics reason that, if there are gods and they do not make clear to man in advance what the future will be, then either they do not love man or they themselves do not know what the future will be. "But there are gods, therefore they give us such signs; and if they give such signs, it is not true that they give us no means to understand those signs."

The overall point is "that there are gods; that they rule the universe by their foresight; and that they direct the affairs of men... Then surely it must follow that the gods give to men signs of coming events."

Over hundreds and even thousands of years, careful observation of certain effects was noted and categorized. Flight patterns of birds; entrails of sacrificed animals; types of dreams. "The careful study and recollection of those signs, aided by the records of former times, has evolved that sort of divination, known as artificial, which is divination by means of entrails, lightnings, portents, and celestial phenomena."

Modern Soothsayers

As noticed in "Frogs On The Prowl" (http://www.shout.net/~bigred/Frogs.html), the meteorologist (weather forecaster) makes deductions from divination which are "merely probable," depending on inference. He speaks with halting cadence, as if peering into a crystal ball. "The flight patterns of the birds disclose to me the wind shifts. The radar is indicating much cloud cover. I foresee a possibility of rain overnight, in scattered areas."

"As a general rule among the ancients the men who ruled the state had control likewise of augury, for they considered divining, as well as wisdom, becoming to a king. Proof of this is afforded by our State wherein the kings were augurs." Our augurs are the CIA and the FBI. They "gather intelligence" and interpret it. Like the meteorologist, sometimes their forecasts are wrong. On September 11, 2001, these soothsayers were disastrously wrong. Unlike the Romans, we did not sew our blowhard augurs into bags and throw them into the Tiber River. On the contrary, we gave them more money.

Divining the "news" is like "reading the tea leaves." On the surface, the signs and signals cannot be relied upon. What is needed is a sort of soothsayer called a "conspiracy theorist" to fathom the hidden meaning. We know, in the words of Father Merrin ("The Exorcist"), that "the demon is a liar... but he mixes truth with his lies." Sifting through the entrails of "news," certain patterns recur. These are noted into the The Record. This ponderous tome is open to all, yet only the sagacious can fully divine the portents.

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All quotes, except where otherwise noted, are from Book I of Cicero's De Divinatione

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