(Conspiracy Nation, 1/31/05) – No, it’s not “The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly,” it’s the M1, the M2, and the M3.
The obscure statistics on M1, M2, and M3 have luckily been found. They reside at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6
This “H.6 Release” is published weekly. Visitors to the Internet location are likely to be dumbfounded by what they read, since the M1, M2, and M3 statistics are published in the aggregate. Conspiracy Nation is consulting soothsayers in hope of divining the data. After all, as Time magazine itself has noticed, the “Federal” Reserve is “a complex and mysterious world.” (“The Squeeze of ‘79” Time magazine, 10/22/79)
M1 is basically a measure of all currency in circulation and not in the vaults of the U.S. Treasury, “Federal” Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions.
M2 is a refinement of M1. It is a slightly less liquid measure, consisting of M1 plus savings deposits, basically.
M3 is a refinement of M2. Again, the liquidity is less. M3 consists of M2 plus larger denomination institutional deposits in money market funds, for example.
The M1, M2, and M3 data are released in two formats: (1) Seasonally adjusted, and (2) Not seasonally adjusted. At this point, Conspiracy Nation does not know the significance of the two formats.
Here is a portion of the available data, showing the M1, M2, and M3 measures, in billions of dollars and not seasonally adjusted:
|
DATE |
M1 |
M2 |
M3 |
|
January 2004 |
1289.0 |
6061.2 |
8927.1 |
|
February 2004 |
1293.0 |
6090.7 |
8991.4 |
|
March 2004 |
1324.3 |
6169.5 |
9107.3 |
|
April 2004 |
1332.1 |
6241.2 |
9181.2 |
|
May 2004 |
1320.0 |
6252.9 |
9240.1 |
|
June 2004 |
1336.0 |
6278.2 |
9287.6 |
|
July 2004 |
1326.9 |
6284.5 |
9263.4 |
|
August 2004 |
1340.9 |
6304.2 |
9303.7 |
|
September 2004 |
1338.7 |
6336.4 |
9335.3 |
|
October 2004 |
1339.0 |
6351.8 |
9323.6 |
|
November 2004 |
1357.8 |
6400.1 |
9381.5 |
|
December 2004 |
1389.2 |
6440.2 |
9458.0 |
|
TOTAL CHANGE |
100.2 |
379.0 |
530.9 |
The last row of data in the above table, “Total Change,” was extrapolated by Conspiracy Nation and does not appear in the original. It shows an increase during the past year of (1) $100.2 billion in M1; (2) $379 billion in M2; (3) and $530.9 billion in M3.
It appears that the supply of money in circulation, in its most liquid form (M1), has increased this past year by some percentage. Not a statistician, Conspiracy Nation calculates the percentage as follows: Total Change (100.2)/Jan. 2004 M1 (1289.0) = .0777, or 7.77 percent. Critiques of this figure are welcomed.
Since the root source of inflation has been defined as the creation of dollars (increased supply, see “The Squeeze of ‘79”, op. cit.), it is to be marveled at that the M1, M2, and M3 statistics are rarely even mentioned in the various news outlets. When the talk is of inflation, there is an aura of “a complex and mysterious world.” (“The Squeeze of ‘79”, op. cit.) Inflation is not something magical that just happens. It has a root source.
Conspiracy Nation
http://www.shout.net/~bigred/cn.html