(Melchizedek Communique, MC012310) "Caution: Zombies Ahead", says Mr. Squirrel, as if he is warning about the predictability of carbon offset futures.

In Brazil, Minas Gerais ("General Mines") converted trees into charcoal via a technique which reduced the emission of methane. (Methane is a big "no no" in the global warming creed.) Because Minas Gerais had found a way, using eucalyptus logs, to produce charcoal without much methane emission, they could sell "emissions credits" on the commodities market.

"Carbon trading is now the fastest-growing commodities market on earth," writes Mark Schapiro in the latest issue of Harper's magazine. ("Conning the Climate", Feb. 2010). Because there are limits imposed on how much carbon various countries can spew, companies can "offset" the limits by purchasing "futures": for example, a Minas Gerais "future" would "offset" the carbon emitted by Belcher Smokestacks, Inc.

But suppose the Minas Gerais "future" does not happen as predicted? The "clean charcoal" they produced was being used in a nearby pig-iron factory. But then there was an economic downturn, the so-called "Great Recession." The market for automobile and refrigerator doors disappeared, and pig-iron was not so much in demand. Because the pig-iron was not desired, the "clean charcoal" stopped being made. And without the "clean charcoal" being made, what becomes of the "futures offset"? It is already sold. Does the Minas Gerais "clean charcoal" futures offset have its value suddenly erased?

Certifying that various futures offsets offered on the commodities market are genuine is a crucial part of the process. Somebody had to certify the validity of the Minas Gerais future offset. It turns out that the United Nations bears responsibilty for scrutinizing the offsets. "Never before has the United Nations presided over the issuing of securities..." The carbon offset futures are "unlike any securities ever created..."

The United Nations has given the okay to 26 "Designated Operational Entities" (DGOs). The DGOs officially validate the promise of the "futures" of carbon offset schemes. One of the DGOs okayed the future of the Minas Gerais "clean charcoal" and it was sold as an offset on the commodities market. But then the future didn't turn out as expected: demand for pig-iron evaporated, and the "clean charcoal" production halted.

"The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men, Gang aft agley." (Robert Burns)

Some major investors in the offset futures are JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Cargill. They are obviously betting on a bright "future" in carbon offsets.

But the problems with turning carbon into a commodity begin at the very moment of conception. "A one-ton carbon credit is not precisely reproducible like an ounce of gold or twenty tons of pork bellies; each credit emerges from entirely different conditions and components, whether the planting of eucalyptus trees, the capture of methane from pigs, the substitution of wind power for coal." In other words, as Yogi Berra said, "The future ain't what it used to be."

(Source: "Conning the Climate", by Mark Schapiro. Harper's magazine, February 2010)